Posts Tagged ‘Wyoming’

Clinton’s Chances of Overtaking Obama Now Smaller

March 11, 2008

After the March 4th primaries, I wrote a blog post asking whether Clinton could possibly overtake Obama in the race for pledged delegates.  I pointed out that her chances of doing this were poor even if Florida and Michigan have new primaries or caucuses.  I wanted to give an update of that analysis after tonight’s Mississippi primary which Obama won.

CNN finally posted estimated delegate counts for the Texas caucus from last Tuesday. Their estimates match the ones I gave in my prior post: 38 for Obama and 29 for Clinton. The combined results of the Texas primary and caucus were: Obama: 99, Clinton: 94. So, Obama won Texas as far as delegates were concerned.  Clinton did win the March 4th contests as a group, cutting Obama’s pledged delegates lead by 6.  However, Obama increased his lead by 2 on Saturday in Wyoming and by 7 in tonight’s Mississippi primary.

Despite all the talk about Clinton’s resurgence, Obama has actually increased his pledged delegate lead by 3 since the Wisconsin primary. That might not sound like much, but it is significant because there are now 415 fewer pledged delegates left to be divided than there were on February 19. In fact, there are now only 566 pledged delegates (not counting Michigan and Florida) in future contests and Obama currently holds a lead of 162 pledged delegates (using CNN’s numbers on March 11th).  Clinton now has to win 364 of the remaining pledged delegates in order to catch up to him. That represents 64.3% of the remaining pledged delegates.  If Michigan and Florida do have new contests, then there will be a total of 879 pledged delegates remaining.  In that case, Clinton would have to win 521 of the remaining delegates or 59.2% of them.  Either way, she now has to win a higher percentage of the remaining delegates than she did 1 week ago.

The primaries are like a marathon. Clinton is approximately the same distance behind Obama at the 22 mile mark as she was at the 20 mile mark. With only 4 miles left to run, her chances of winning are now smaller than before.

Early and Final Results from Wyoming Caucus

March 8, 2008

So far, 78% of the vote is in from the Democratic Wyoming Caucus.  The results look good for Obama.  At this point, he was beating Clinton 59% to 40%.  More importantly, he has won more counties and has won more counties with more than 60% of the vote.  Winning counties by more than 60% could help him get an even bigger share of Wyoming’s 12 delegates. Out of 23 counties, he has won 11 of those who reported full results while Clinton has only won 7.  Of these 18 reporting counties, Obama won 7 of them with 60% of the vote or more.  Clinton did not win any counties with this margin.

You can see updated results at CNN’s Election Center  including county-level maps and tables.

Here is the map as displayed at 3:10 PM EST today:

Wyoming County Map from CNN

Postscript: Here is the final map.  Obama won 4 of the remaining 5 counties while Clinton won 1.  However, two counties that had originally seemed to be Clinton wins ended up being ties.  The final score was: Obama 15, Clinton 6, Tied 2.  Overall, Obama won 61% of the vote while Clinton won 38%.  The final delegate allocation according to ABC and CBS was 7 to 5 in favor of Obama.  So, Obama increased his delegate lead by 2.

Final Wyoming Caucus Map