Posts Tagged ‘Mississippi’

Clinton’s Chances of Overtaking Obama Now Smaller

March 11, 2008

After the March 4th primaries, I wrote a blog post asking whether Clinton could possibly overtake Obama in the race for pledged delegates.  I pointed out that her chances of doing this were poor even if Florida and Michigan have new primaries or caucuses.  I wanted to give an update of that analysis after tonight’s Mississippi primary which Obama won.

CNN finally posted estimated delegate counts for the Texas caucus from last Tuesday. Their estimates match the ones I gave in my prior post: 38 for Obama and 29 for Clinton. The combined results of the Texas primary and caucus were: Obama: 99, Clinton: 94. So, Obama won Texas as far as delegates were concerned.  Clinton did win the March 4th contests as a group, cutting Obama’s pledged delegates lead by 6.  However, Obama increased his lead by 2 on Saturday in Wyoming and by 7 in tonight’s Mississippi primary.

Despite all the talk about Clinton’s resurgence, Obama has actually increased his pledged delegate lead by 3 since the Wisconsin primary. That might not sound like much, but it is significant because there are now 415 fewer pledged delegates left to be divided than there were on February 19. In fact, there are now only 566 pledged delegates (not counting Michigan and Florida) in future contests and Obama currently holds a lead of 162 pledged delegates (using CNN’s numbers on March 11th).  Clinton now has to win 364 of the remaining pledged delegates in order to catch up to him. That represents 64.3% of the remaining pledged delegates.  If Michigan and Florida do have new contests, then there will be a total of 879 pledged delegates remaining.  In that case, Clinton would have to win 521 of the remaining delegates or 59.2% of them.  Either way, she now has to win a higher percentage of the remaining delegates than she did 1 week ago.

The primaries are like a marathon. Clinton is approximately the same distance behind Obama at the 22 mile mark as she was at the 20 mile mark. With only 4 miles left to run, her chances of winning are now smaller than before.

Mississippi Exit Polls

March 11, 2008

Here are some results from the Mississippi exit polls from today’s primary:

Let’s start with results based on race and gender:

     White voters (49% of those polled): 72% Clinton, 27% Obama
     Black voters (49% of those polled): 9% Clinton, 91% Obama
     Male voters: 39% Clinton, 61% Obama
     Female voters: 42% Clinton, 57% Obama
     White men favored Clinton 70% to 30%.
     White women favored Clinton 75% to 24%

So, while Obama beat Clinton amongst both male and female voters when race was not included, he lost amongst white men and women. So, he essentially won Mississippi based on support from black men and women.

Obama won 58-60% of the vote from those voters polled regardless of their education level.

A contrast to other states was that less affluent voters supported Obama while those making $75,000 or more supported Clinton (although just barely).  It is possible that there is correlation between income and race that could account for this.

Obama won all age groups except those voters over 65.

Top Candidate Quality:

     53% Can Bring Change
     19% Experience
     16% Cares About People
       9% Electability

It seems that campaign ads were important to many of Obama’s voters.  It is unclear from the exit poll whether these voters were positively influenced by Obama ads or negatively influenced by Clinton ads. 

     Campaign Ads Important: Clinton 35%, Obama 64%
     Campaign Ads Not Important: Clinton 61%, Obama 38%

More voters though Obama is honest than Clinton: 

     Is Obama Honest? 70% Yes, 29% No
     Is Clinton Honest? 51% Yes, 48% No

More voters polled thought that Obama was more qualified to be Command In Chief.

     Obama More Qualified: 54%
     Clinton More Qualified: 43%

Another interesting statistic is that voters who had a favorable view of John McCain tended to favor Clinton over Obama suggesting either that these voters are more focused on experience as measured by years spent in Washington or feel that Clinton and McCain are closer together on issues of national security and Iraq.  In any case, this suggests that (in Mississippi) that Obama offers stronger contrast to McCain than Clinton.

Democrats (70% of those polled) favored Obama 67% to 32%.
Republicans (13% of those polled) favored Clinton 77% to 23%.
Independents (17% of those polled) favored Obama 51% to 48%.

Voters who made up their minds in the last 3 days favored Clinton 54% to 44%.   Other voters favored Obama 61% to 39%.