Posts Tagged ‘exit polls’

Mississippi Exit Polls

March 11, 2008

Here are some results from the Mississippi exit polls from today’s primary:

Let’s start with results based on race and gender:

     White voters (49% of those polled): 72% Clinton, 27% Obama
     Black voters (49% of those polled): 9% Clinton, 91% Obama
     Male voters: 39% Clinton, 61% Obama
     Female voters: 42% Clinton, 57% Obama
     White men favored Clinton 70% to 30%.
     White women favored Clinton 75% to 24%

So, while Obama beat Clinton amongst both male and female voters when race was not included, he lost amongst white men and women. So, he essentially won Mississippi based on support from black men and women.

Obama won 58-60% of the vote from those voters polled regardless of their education level.

A contrast to other states was that less affluent voters supported Obama while those making $75,000 or more supported Clinton (although just barely).  It is possible that there is correlation between income and race that could account for this.

Obama won all age groups except those voters over 65.

Top Candidate Quality:

     53% Can Bring Change
     19% Experience
     16% Cares About People
       9% Electability

It seems that campaign ads were important to many of Obama’s voters.  It is unclear from the exit poll whether these voters were positively influenced by Obama ads or negatively influenced by Clinton ads. 

     Campaign Ads Important: Clinton 35%, Obama 64%
     Campaign Ads Not Important: Clinton 61%, Obama 38%

More voters though Obama is honest than Clinton: 

     Is Obama Honest? 70% Yes, 29% No
     Is Clinton Honest? 51% Yes, 48% No

More voters polled thought that Obama was more qualified to be Command In Chief.

     Obama More Qualified: 54%
     Clinton More Qualified: 43%

Another interesting statistic is that voters who had a favorable view of John McCain tended to favor Clinton over Obama suggesting either that these voters are more focused on experience as measured by years spent in Washington or feel that Clinton and McCain are closer together on issues of national security and Iraq.  In any case, this suggests that (in Mississippi) that Obama offers stronger contrast to McCain than Clinton.

Democrats (70% of those polled) favored Obama 67% to 32%.
Republicans (13% of those polled) favored Clinton 77% to 23%.
Independents (17% of those polled) favored Obama 51% to 48%.

Voters who made up their minds in the last 3 days favored Clinton 54% to 44%.   Other voters favored Obama 61% to 39%.


Analysis of 2008 Ohio Exit Polls

March 4, 2008

CNN has published their exit polls  for Ohio and some of the data is interesting.  The results are based on 1,577 voters who were interviewed after they voted.

Voters had mirror-image votes based on education: those without college degrees voted 55% to 44% in favor of Clinton while those with college degrees voted 55% to 44% in favor of Obama.  (The numbers favored Clinton even more amongst those voters who had never attended college at all.)

Obama won big amongst voters aged 17-29 (67%) and by a smaller degree amongst those aged 30-44 (54%).  Clinton won amongst voters aged 45-59 (54%) and by a bigger degree amongst those aged 60 and older (67%) — another mirror result.

The numbers were similiarly split based on income with 51% of those making less than $100,000 favoring Clinton and 54% of those making more than that amount favoring Obama.

Voters who were very or somewhat worried about the economy slightly favored Clinton 52% to 47% while those who were not favored Obama 50% to 49%.  This suggests that voters more worried about their finances believed that Clinton would be more likely to change or scuttle NAFTA.

Obama was favored (by a margin of about 54%) in most regions of Ohio: Cuyahoga County, Central Ohio, Northwestern Ohio, and Southwestern Ohio.  Voters from these regions (in the exit polls) comprised 65% of those polled.  Clinton was favored by a bigger margin (61%) in Northeastern Ohio which comprised 35% of the voters polled.

The most important issues to voters were: the economy (58%), Iraq (19%), and health care (19%).  Those who said the economy was the most important favored Clinton 52% to 47%.  Those who said that Iraq was the biggest issue favored Obama 53% to 47%. Those who considered health care most important favored Clinton 52% to 47%.

Registered Democrats were 69%  of voters polled, Independents were 22%, and Republicans were 9%. Clinton won amongst registered Democrats 53% to 46%.  Obama won amongst Independents 54% to 46% and amongst Republicans 55% to 45%.

Clinton got 61% of the white vote while Obama got 89% of the black vote.

Unlike recent primaries, Clinton won amongst white men 55% to 44%.  Her margin with white women was even larger: 66% to 34%.  As in past primaries, Obama won big amongst both black men and women.  Latinos in Ohio were not numerous enough in the exit polls to report any numbers.

Urban communities favored Obama while rural and suburban communities favored Clinton.

Clinton won 55% of voters who made their decision today, or in the last 3 days or last week.  Obama won amongst voters who made their in the last month.  Clinton won amongst voters who made their decision before that.

Based on all these numbers, it appears that Clinton stopped Obama’s encroachment into her coalition and won back some of the demographics she had been losing to him in other states such as white men.  Based on these exit polls, I predict that Clinton will win Ohio tonight.  However, note that an exit poll is still a poll, even if much more detailed.  The people polled might not ultimately reflect the results amongst the full electorate.  Even if they did, exit polls do not account for differences in turnout amongst the candidates’ supporters.

Obama Beat Clinton in Wisconsin Across Most Demographics

February 19, 2008

The Wisconsin exit polls show that Obama beat Clinton in that state across most demographic groups.  The only groups that Clinton won were white women, people over 65, and Catholics.  But she only won 51% of white women, 61% of people over 65, and 50% of Catholics.  She also lost most regions of the state, the one exception being Northwestern Wisconsin which she won 51% to 47%.

Both NBC News and CNN have projected that Obama won the Wisconsin primary.  This victory and these numbers don’t bode well for Clinton in Ohio in two weeks.

Wisconsin Exit Polls Favor Obama

February 19, 2008

CBS News reported that the early exit polls from Wisconsin appear to favor Obama tonight.  CBS indicated that change was viewed as the most important quality to Democratic primary voters in the early exit polls.   Additionally, Obama is seen by Wisconsin voters as the Democrat most likely to win the election in November.

Jeff Greenfield of CBS said the following about the polling numbers: “Harry, if you’re looking for encouragement from Hillary Clinton, basically you have to hope these numbers are wrong.”

Bob Schieffer of CBS added: “There can’t be very much happiness in the Clinton camp tonight.”

CNN reported earlier tonight that 27% of the Wisconsin voters in the Democratic primary were independents while 10% were Republicans.  This also bodes well for Obama.

Of course, the exit polls might not truly reflect the final outcome. They have often not done so in this primary season.  But I’m sure the Obama camp would rather have the exit polls look favorable than not.