Analysis of 2008 Ohio Exit Polls

CNN has published their exit polls  for Ohio and some of the data is interesting.  The results are based on 1,577 voters who were interviewed after they voted.

Voters had mirror-image votes based on education: those without college degrees voted 55% to 44% in favor of Clinton while those with college degrees voted 55% to 44% in favor of Obama.  (The numbers favored Clinton even more amongst those voters who had never attended college at all.)

Obama won big amongst voters aged 17-29 (67%) and by a smaller degree amongst those aged 30-44 (54%).  Clinton won amongst voters aged 45-59 (54%) and by a bigger degree amongst those aged 60 and older (67%) — another mirror result.

The numbers were similiarly split based on income with 51% of those making less than $100,000 favoring Clinton and 54% of those making more than that amount favoring Obama.

Voters who were very or somewhat worried about the economy slightly favored Clinton 52% to 47% while those who were not favored Obama 50% to 49%.  This suggests that voters more worried about their finances believed that Clinton would be more likely to change or scuttle NAFTA.

Obama was favored (by a margin of about 54%) in most regions of Ohio: Cuyahoga County, Central Ohio, Northwestern Ohio, and Southwestern Ohio.  Voters from these regions (in the exit polls) comprised 65% of those polled.  Clinton was favored by a bigger margin (61%) in Northeastern Ohio which comprised 35% of the voters polled.

The most important issues to voters were: the economy (58%), Iraq (19%), and health care (19%).  Those who said the economy was the most important favored Clinton 52% to 47%.  Those who said that Iraq was the biggest issue favored Obama 53% to 47%. Those who considered health care most important favored Clinton 52% to 47%.

Registered Democrats were 69%  of voters polled, Independents were 22%, and Republicans were 9%. Clinton won amongst registered Democrats 53% to 46%.  Obama won amongst Independents 54% to 46% and amongst Republicans 55% to 45%.

Clinton got 61% of the white vote while Obama got 89% of the black vote.

Unlike recent primaries, Clinton won amongst white men 55% to 44%.  Her margin with white women was even larger: 66% to 34%.  As in past primaries, Obama won big amongst both black men and women.  Latinos in Ohio were not numerous enough in the exit polls to report any numbers.

Urban communities favored Obama while rural and suburban communities favored Clinton.

Clinton won 55% of voters who made their decision today, or in the last 3 days or last week.  Obama won amongst voters who made their in the last month.  Clinton won amongst voters who made their decision before that.

Based on all these numbers, it appears that Clinton stopped Obama’s encroachment into her coalition and won back some of the demographics she had been losing to him in other states such as white men.  Based on these exit polls, I predict that Clinton will win Ohio tonight.  However, note that an exit poll is still a poll, even if much more detailed.  The people polled might not ultimately reflect the results amongst the full electorate.  Even if they did, exit polls do not account for differences in turnout amongst the candidates’ supporters.


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2 Responses to “Analysis of 2008 Ohio Exit Polls”

  1. sharon raphael Says:

    Hillary projected big winner in Ohio. The poll results you describe were on the right track.
    Hooray!!!!!!!This may be the turning point in her favor.


  2. Anonymous Says:

    ezine articles

    Good post!

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