Obama Has Overtaken Clinton in CA Polls

Barack Obama is really gaining momentum in the polls, especially in California where some polls now show Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton, although only by 1-4% which might not be statistically significant.  But his gains in the California polls are very impressive considering that polls taken in January had Clinton leading Obama by as much as 17%.

Since different polls use different methodologies and sample sizes, it can be misleading to compare the results of different polls. The clearest trend from a single source listed at realclearpolitics.com is from the Rasmussen Reports which had the following results in their 3 most recent polls:

  • 1/14     Clinton:38%     Obama:33%
  • 1/29     Clinton:43%     Obama:40%
  • 2/2       Clinton:44%     Obama:45%

So, during the past few weeks, the Rasmussen polls show Obama gaining 12% while Clinton has only gained 6%.  This would suggest that former Edwards supporters and undecided voters are breaking 2:1 for Obama. If that trend continued with the rest of the undecided voters, we could see Obama beat Clinton by as much as 52% to 48% amongst California voters who actually vote on Super Tuesday itself (not including those who voted early).

Of course, many factors could change the final numbers including voter turnout, late political ads or news, and the fact that many California Democrats already voted early when Clinton was leading in the polls. But Obama’s climb in the polls in California and other states  is something for Obama supporters to cheer about.

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One Response to “Obama Has Overtaken Clinton in CA Polls”

  1. rberlind Says:

    Obama continued to make gains in the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby California polls, increasing his lead over Clinton from 4% to 6% based on the polls taken 1/31-2/2 and 2/1-2/3.

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