Late Deciders in Florida Primary Turned Away From Clinton

One of the interesting statistics buried in the Florida Democratic Primary exit polls was the fact that Barack Obama actually beat Hillary Clinton amongst voters who decided who to vote for during the 3 days before the primary.  According to CNN’s website, Obama got 36% of this group’s vote while Clinton got 35% and Edwards got 23%. Clinton won 50% of absentee/early voters and 53% of voters who voted at the polls but made up their mind more than 3 days before the primary.  Obama won 31% of absentee/early voters and 34% of the early deciders.

While Obama did slightly better amongst the late deciders than the other voters, Clinton did substantially worse.  It is also interesting that Edwards did much better amongst these late deciders (23%) than he did amongst voters who made up their mind earlier (14% and 12%).  These facts suggest that some late deciders turned away from Clinton in favor of Edwards.

Unfortunately for both Edwards and Obama, the late deciders only made up 17% of the Democratic voters, so their gains within this group were not nearly enough to offset Clinton’s lead amongst the early deciders.

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One Response to “Late Deciders in Florida Primary Turned Away From Clinton”

  1. Me Says:

    Beware stochastic noise in polling data.

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